Monday, May 27, 2019

Chuck Schumer may have hurt the chances of a potential US China Trade Deal

"I think the death-knell for a trade deal actually happened after Chuck Schumer cheered the President's trade posture. Trump in no way can get outflanked by the Dems on this get-tough-with-China file, which has so much domestic support to begin with." 

-via twitter

Monday, May 6, 2019

Recent GDP report was not of a high quality

This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Market gains led by handful of stocks

The top ten stocks in the S&P 500 today account for an incredible near-25% of the entire market cap. As Bob Farrell would ponder, "markets are weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names."

Monday, April 1, 2019

Nobody ever said the yield curve was infallible as a recession forecaster

Curve inversion will be temporary only if one these happen: Fed eases or inflation expectations revive. When the inverted was a 'head fake', that 15% of the time, the Fed cut rates. As for inflation, the leading measures (NY Fed on prices, Atlanta on wages) have peaked.

via twitter

Monday, March 18, 2019

Goldman Sachs CEO says no recession. Meanwhile, we have seen peaks in aggregate hours worked (Jan.), real sales (Nov.), real weekly wages (Jan.) and IP (Dec.). The market surely was pricing something in during the Q4 meltdown! It may have arrived.

"The S&P 500 is up 12.6% for the best start to any year since 1991. The VIX has collapsed 57% in 3 months' time, the sharpest drop since 1990. Remember that 1990-91 was a recession, and these moves took hold too late to save the economy even as the Fed switched course."

via twitter

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Major resistance at the 2800 level on the S&P500

"SPX again can't handle success near 2,800...outside of the late-2018 plunge, the strategy has been to add at 2,600 and trim at current levels. Fourth failed attempt at 2,800 in the past four months – major resistance here."